Research on the driving mechanism and multi-scenario prediction of land-use evolution in resource-based cities:A case study of Taiyuan City
ZHANG Mingmei
LI Tengfei
WANG Yixiong
WANG Xingxing
HE Yibo
Abstract：Based on land-use data from 2000,2010,and 2020,a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of land-use in Taiyuan,a typical resource-based city,was conducted by integrating the land-use dynamic degree,the PLUS model,and the geographical detector.Furthermore,the land-use patterns under different development scenarios for 2030 were simulated.The results show that from 2000 to 2020,the construction land increased by 84.05%,while the cultivated land decreased by 12.7%,and the structure of ecological land tended to be optimized.The driving mechanisms for the expansion of different land types varied,with cultivated land primarily driven by distance to fourth-level roads,forest land by population density,grassland and construction land by elevation,and water areas by distance to lakes.Among individual factors,GDP showed the strongest explanatory power,and factor interactions demonstrated nonlinear enhancement effects.Multi-scenario simulations revealed clear differences in land-use change trends under natural development,ecological protection,economic development,and cultivated land protection scenarios,reflecting the impact of different policy orientations on land use allocation.This research provides a scientific basis for land resource optimization,ecological protection,and the coordinated socio-economic development of resource-based cities.
Keywords：land-usedriving factorPLUS modelgeographical detectormulti-scenario simulation
Publication Date：2025-10-31
Online Publishing Date：2025-11-21(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：12( 134-144,152 )