An Assessment of Capability for Mission in Aircraft Power Supply System Based on Probability Statistics and Expert Evaluation
HU Chenyu
PAN Jinxin
FANG Xin
JIAO Xiaoxuan
JING Bo
Abstract：In view of the task capability evaluation in power supply system at an aircraft,a method based on statistical analysis and expert evaluation is proposed.Firstly,the power supply system at a certain type of aircraft is introduced,and its main failure modes and failure reasons are analyzed.Secondly,the Weibull distribution of power supply system faults is fitted through the statistical data from power supply system faults,and a method of calculating equipment fault probability during the task based on posterior knowledge is proposed to meet the requirements of equipment tasks.On this basis,according to the differ-ences in the specific environment and intensity of task,the environmental factors in the power supply sys-tem are rated by using the method of expert experience scoring in comprehensive consideration of the vi-bration,load,natural environment and other factors.The results show that the proposed method can ef-fectively predict the failure probability of the key components in the power supply system under the condi-tion of fulfilling the mission,and comprehensively evaluate the mission environmental factors,supporting the decision of fulfilling the mission.
Keywords：power supply systemWeibull distributionexpert evaluationequipment capability evaluationreliability modeling
Publication Date：2025-04-25
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 11-18 )