Construction and implementation of a subsidence prediction model for inclined irregular working face mining

Zhao Chunsu; Chen Junjie; Yan Weitao

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2025070033

Abstract：Objectives The prediction accuracy of surface movement and deformation under complex mining conditions is to be improved,and the surface movement and deformation induced by inclined irregular working face mining is to be accurately predicted.Methods Based on a unit influence function that consid-ers variations in mining depth,a calculation method for the mining depth of arbitrary units in inclined coal seams was proposed,and a subsidence prediction model suitable for inclined irregular working faces was established.The model applies Green's theorem to convert subsidence area integrals into boundary line in-tegrals,derives the corresponding line integral prediction formula,and provides a numerical solution method.On this basis,an integrated prediction program was developed,achieving full-process computation from parameter input and determination of integration intervals to line integral solutions.The program en-ables visualization of prediction results,including surface subsidence,tilt,curvature,horizontal move-ment,and horizontal deformation,and further evaluates and analyzes the mining-induced damage levels.The proposed model was validated and analyzed through case studies of inclined working faces in actual mining areas.Results The results show that the proposed prediction model and integrated program can effec-tively address the accurate prediction of surface subsidence and classification of mining-induced damage un-der complex mining conditions.The prediction results conform to the fundamental laws of mining subsid-ence,with a relative error in subsidence prediction of less than 10%,thereby meeting engineering accu-racy requirements.Conclusions The proposed model is reliable and practical,with high prediction accu-racy,and can provide a theoretical basis and technical support for the mining design optimization,precise surface damage assessment and protection strategies in inclined irregular working face mining.