Study on safety risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in gas-coal overlap zones based on extension theory

Yue Shuaishuai; Fan Wenhuan; Wang Wen; Guo Runsheng; Lu Xiaowei

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2024110030

Abstract：Objectives In response to the frequent accidents such as gas leakage and environmental pollu-tion caused by natural gas pipelines in gas-coal overlap zones,this study takes pipelines in four typical overlapping mining areas of S Mine,X2 Mine,H Mine,and M Mine in the Daniudi Gas Field as ex-amples to conduct a risk assessment of natural gas pipelines in the regions.Methods By analyzing the causes of pipeline damage,a risk assessment system was constructed,consisting of three first-level indica-tors(pipeline factors,environmental factors,and personnel management factors)and seventeen second-level indicators(such as pipeline subsidence and pipeline corrosion).Subsequently,a risk assessment model was built based on extension theory.The BP neural network was employed to calculate the weights of the indicators.The correlation degrees of the indicators were then calculated using distance correlation func-tions and similarity functions,respectively,followed by a quantitative risk analysis of the pipelines.Re-sults The results show that the risk correlation degrees for pipelines in the four areas,calculated based on the distance correlation function,were 0.002,0.034,0.053,and 0.019,respectively.The corresponding risk similarities calculated based on the similarity function were 0.054,0.510,0.560,and 0.500,respec-tively.The corresponding risk levels for the four areas were"high risk,""moderate risk,""moderate risk,"and"low risk."Conclusions Both calculation methods based on the distance correlation function and the similarity function are applicable in the extension evaluation model.The assessment results are largely con-sistent,jointly verifying the reliability of the evaluation outcomes.