Characteristics and attribution of vegetation change in the Loess Plateau based on climate change and human factors

Ge Liling; Jiao Yiheng; Zhang Xufei; Fang Shijun

doi:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2024030039

Abstract：Objectives The Loess Plateau is an important part of China's ecological security.Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and its climate controls provides a robust theoretical basis for eco-logical protection and restoration.Methods The kernel-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(kNDVI)was employed in this study to characterize vegetation cover across the Loess Plateau of China from 2000 to 2022.Spatialtemporal patterns were examined using trend analysis,stability analysis,and Hurst exponent-based prediction.In addition,meteorological observations were leveraged,and partial-derivative-based attribution was applied to quantify the respective contribution of climate change and anthro-pogenic activities to interannual kNDVI changes.Results showed that:(1)Over the past 23 years,the veg-etation cover increased at a rate of 0.0057/a,and slope-driven spatiotemporal heterogeneity in vegetation cover was significant;(2)The Hurst-based projections indicate that in the mining areas,the vegetation growth shows an upward trendency across 79.04%of the region,while 3.74%exhibits a downward ten-dency.(3)The results of attribution show that the average contributions of precipitation and temperature to kNDVI changes in the Loess Plateau were 0.000 81/a and 0.001 31/a,respectively.Anthropogenic activi-ties dominated,accounting for a 62.33%relative contribution to kNDVI change,compared with 37.67%from climate variability.(4)Land-use dynamics featured expansion of forest area,scaled ecological affores-tation projects and vegetation cover.On the contrary,urbanization exerted an adverse effect on vegetation growth.Conclusions This study provides theoretical and technical support for ecological restoration and en-vironmental quality improvement.