Risk assessment of underground coal mine reservoir utilization based on IAHP-EWM-SPA
Li Jianlin
Hu Xingwen
Zhang Mengjiao
Zhang Yufeng
Li Xiaolei
Meng Yazhou
Abstract：Objectives Accurate evaluation of the risks in developing and utilizing coal mine goafs is the fun-damental basis for determining the feasibility of constructing underground reservoirs.Taking three goafs in the Hebi Zhongtai mining area as examples,this study evaluates the risks involved in their development and utilization.Methods The P-S-R(Pressure-State-Response)model was introduced to establish a risk evaluation system for underground coal mine reservoirs,consisting of four criteria layers—geological condi-tions,safety conditions,water storage conditions,and economic benefits—with a total of 17 indicators.The indicators were quantified and classified through direct measurement,simulation,and indirect calcula-tion.The improved analytic hierarchy process(IAHP)and entropy weight method(EWM)were then com-bined to optimize indicator weights.Finally,set pair analysis(SPA)was applied to grade and evaluate the risks.Results The results indicate that among the four criteria layers,geological conditions carry the high-est weight.Among the 17 indicators,the key ones affecting risk are the number of faults(A1),coal seam inclination(B1),mine water inflow(C3),profit(D3).The utilization risk level of goaf 33072 and goaf 2315 was classified as moderate,while goaf 3201 was classified as high.Conclusions The IAHP-EWM-SPA model offers a new approach for assessing the risks associated with the development and utilization of underground coal mine reservoirs.
Keywords：underground coal mine reservoirrisk assessment index systemcombined weightingFLAC3D+Rhino+Griddle numerical simulationIAHP-EWM-SPA model
Publication Date：2025-11-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-10-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 83-91 )