Cause analysis and prevention of tailings dam failures based on the AISM-MICMAC Model
Ye Jiawen
Liu Peixun
Li Haigang
Shi Pingping
Wang Yali
Abstract：Objectives To explore the relationships among the causes of tailings dam failures,examine the evolution paths of different factors,analyze the driving-dependence relationships,identify the factors with high driving force and high dependence,and propose corresponding strategies.Methods The AISM-MICMAC Model was employed to systematically analyze the hierarchical relationships and categorical distri-bution of influencing factors.Results Based on accident case analysis,69 potential factors contributing to tailings dam failures were identified and classified into 10 levels,including direct,intermediate,and root causes.Factors at the bottom of the structure were defined as root causes,while those at the top were di-rect causes.The driving force and dependence values of the factors were calculated,and a driving-dependence diagram was constructed.Conclusions The diagram revealed the hierarchical levels of the fac-tors,their evolutionary relationships,and the mutual transmission of influences.Root causes exhibited high driving force and low dependence,while direct causes showed low driving force and high dependence.The four-quadrant diagram effectively visualized the driving-dependence relationships,helping to identify key factors and propose targeted prevention and control measures.
Keywords：tailingsdam breakAISM-MICMAC modelhierarchical division
Publication Date：2025-11-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-10-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 75-82 )