Flood risk assessment of tailings dams based on bibliometrics and ISM
Chen Guofang
Zhang Xinru
Li Haigang
Zheng Yu
Wang Liuyue
Abstract：Objectives Floods are a critical factor affecting the safety of tailings dams.Clarifying the risk transmission pathways of floods in tailings dams helps identify key risk factors and optimize preventive mea-sures.Methods Bibliometric analysis and expert judgment were used to select important flood risk indica-tors.The hierarchical structure of these indicators was determined using Interpretative Structural Modeling(ISM).Disaster evolution pathways were further analyzed through Fault Tree Analysis(FTA),and corre-sponding preventive measures were proposed.Results(1)A total of 24 flood risk factors were identified through bibliometric analysis,from which 10 key factors were determined based on average weight values and expert experience.(2)ISM revealed the interrelationships among the 10 factors and flood risks,identi-fying direct,indirect,and fundamental influencing factors.(3)A fault tree model for flood disasters in tailings dams was constructed by integrating ISM with accident cases.Boolean algebraic operations yielded 18 disaster-causing paths and 9 prevention paths.(4)Structural importance analysis indicated that insuffi-cient drainage capacity,high peak flood flow,and shallow initial phreatic line are the most critical events influencing flood risks.Conclusions The proposed methodology,which integrates bibliometric analysis,ISM,and FTA,achieves the fusion of objective indicator screening and system modeling,and provides theoretical support for transforming flood prevention in tailings dams from passive response to active pre-vention.
Keywords：tailing reservoirflood riskbibliometric analysisinterpretative structural modelingfault tree analysis
Publication Date：2025-11-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-10-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 18-26 )