A long-period chaotic prediction model of mine discharge
LI Jianlin
CHANG Xiaofeng
WANG Yan
Abstract：In view of forecast model of the current coal mine discharge having the larger error,the authors carried out chaotic identification for mine discharge using chaotic theory,and set up a mid-long-period chaotic prediction for the mine discharge.Took Pingdingshan No.12 Coal Mine as an example,mine discharge series was studied.The max Lyapunov exponent λ was 0.161 1,indicating that the sequence has chaotic characteristics.The time delay τ (τ =12 months) and embedding dimension m (m =9),were calculated,respectively.The phase-space reconstruction of mine discharge was established,and the medium and long-term chaotic prediction model for the mine discharge was also (the prediction period 6 months).Contrasted with the measured results,the accuracy of the prediction model had reached about 99.37％.So,the prediction model provides scientific basis for the development of mine multi-quarter safe production planning and mine disaster control.
Keywords：mine discharge serieschaotic predictionphase space reconstructionmine safety
Publication Date：2017-09-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 23-28 )