Reliability modeling of the wheel dependent competing failures considering random variable thresholds
QI Jinping
FENG Hong
LIU Xiaoyu
LIU Yiming
FU Lusheng
YAN Daqiang
Abstract：Wheels degraded during normal operation due to the coupling effect of multiple factors such as wear and impact.However,most existing studies only considered the influence of a single factor and regarded the failure threshold as a fixed value,thus failing to accurately reflect the wheel degradation law.For this reason,a dependent competing failure model considering variable thresholds was proposed.The non-stationary Gamma process and extreme shocks were used to describe the natural degradation and shock process of wheels,respectively.It was assumed that the natural degradation increment caused by shocks was dependent on the shock amplitude.The shock failure threshold was set to follow a normal distribution,so as to characterize the random influence of natural degradation on the shock failure threshold.Case calculations were conducted based on the measured wear data of the wheel flange of a certain EMU,and a comparative study is carried out using the Monte Carlo simulation method.The results verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed modeling method,which can provide a reference for the optimization of wheel maintenance cycles.
Keywords：EMU wheelDependent competitive failureRandom variable failure thresholdReliability analysisExtreme shockNon-stationary Gamma process
Publication Date：2025-11-15
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 150-158 )