Construction and verification of PICC-related thrombosis risk prediction model for patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage after operation
NIU Yipeng
ZHANG Hongmei
YANG Jiaojiao
ZHANG Hongxu
Abstract：Objective:To construct a nomogram prediction model for the risk of peripherally inserted central catheter(PICC)-related thrombosis in patients with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage after surgery,and to verify the model's performance.Methods:The clinical data of 490 patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage who underwent PICC in the hospital from April 2020 to April 2023 were retrospectively collected.Patients were divided into verification group(343 cases)and modeling group(147 cases)by simple random sampling method at a 3:7 ratio.Univariate and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to examine the independent risk factors of PICC-related thrombosis in patients after hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage surgery,and the correlation nomogram prediction model was constructed and verified internally and externally.Results:The incidence of PICC-related thrombosis was 27.89％in the modeling group(147 patients).Logistic regression analysis showed that age,blood pressure level,body mass index(BMI),diabetes mellitus,puncture site,puncture catheter tip position,and previous CVC or PICC catheterization history were independent risk factors for PICC-related thrombosis in patients with hypertensive cerebral hemorrhage(P＜0.05).A nomogram model for predicting PICC-related thrombosis risk was constructed and verified based on the above factors.The results showed that the C-inde of the model and the verification groups were 0.941 and 0.844,respectively.Conclusions:The constructed nomogram model based on age,blood pressure level,BMI,diabetes,puncture site,catheter tip position,and previous CVC or PICC catheterization history could effectively predict PICC-related thrombosis risk.
Keywords：hypertensive cerebral hemorrhageperipheral central venous catheterizationPICCthrombosisnomogram model
Publication Date：2024-02-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 397-401 )