Population Prediction Research in Yunnan Province Based on Grey Prediction and BP Neural Network
HE Silan
SUN Hongbing
Abstract：The population problem has always been a key issue in the economic growth and social stability ,so scientific and accurate forecast of the population is becoming more and more important .In this paper ,by using the total population of yunnan province in China statistical yearbook data ,simulation the population from 2000 to 2013 by the grey prediction model and BP neural network model ,considering the limitations of single forecasting model ,then using the method of standard de‐viation to weight distribution of single forecasting results ,that is the combined forecasting model .Model results show that the combined forecasting model is superior to the single grey prediction model and BP neural network model ,and it has high precision .Finally the population from 2014 to 2025 is forecasted by combined forecasting model ,the results show that the population will exceed 50 million until 2024 ,and the population growth remain at around 0 .6% .
Keywords：grey predictionBP neural networkcombination forecasting method
Publication Date：2016-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 193-196,236 )