Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and scenario prediction of carbon emissions from residential buildings in Shandong Province
NIU Bo
BAI Yuzhu
DUAN Jiani
SAI Yunxiu
XU Jing
Abstract：Taking residential buildings in Shandong Province as the research object,exploring their spatiotemporal evolution as well as future development trends.Based on the calculation of carbon emissions from residential buildings in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2021,the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions from residential buildings at the municipal and county levels in Shandong Province are analyzed using night-time light inversion.Feature selection is conducted using Pearson-RF,and the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis are employed to predict the carbon emissions from residential buildings in Shandong Province.The results show that the carbon emissions from residential buildings in Shandong Province are continuously increasing,with regional differences and spatial correlations existing within the system.Only under the low-carbon scenario,carbon peak(peak of 14 151.43 million t)can be achieved in 2030.It is recommended to achieve the emission reduction targets by measures such as controlling building scale,promoting green renovations,and formulating differentiated regional policies.
Keywords：residential buildingscarbon emission predictionSTIRPAT modelscenario analysis
Publication Date：2026-02-25
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-31(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 102-106 )