Construction of a risk model for deep vein thrombosis of the lower extremities in elderly patients with hip fractures after treatment
LI Lijie
TONG Mengqi
ZHANG Dan
WANG Yuwei
WU Jieqiong
YU Miaomiao
Abstract：Objective To explore the construction of a risk factor model for deep venous thrombosis(DVT)of the lower extremities in elderly patients with hip fractures after treatment based on Logistic regression analysis,and to determine the predictive value of the Logistic regression model for lower extremity DVT in elderly patients with hip fractures after treatment based on the ROC curve.Methods A total of 120 elderly patients with hip fractures admitted from August 2023 to February 2025 were included and divided into the DVT group(n=24)and the non-DVT group(n=96)based on whether DVT occurred after treatment.Univariate and Logistic regression analyses were conducted successively on the risk factors of lower extremity DVT in elderly patients with hip fractures after treatment to obtain the independent risk factors and prediction models of lower extremity DVT.A total of 120 cases of hip fractures in the elderly after treatment were re-included for model prediction,and the ROC curve was used to determine the predictive value of the model.Results Univariate analysis showed that the time from injury to examination,fracture type,diabetes mellitus,cerebrovascular disease,bed rest time,blood coagulation index affected lower limb DVT in elderly patients with hip fracture after treatment(P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis:Time from injury to examination(OR=3.766,95%CI:1.192～11.900),intertrochanteric fracture(OR=2.219,95%CI:1.091～4.511),diabetes mellitus(OR=3.258,95%CI:1.169～9.080),cerebrovascular disease(OR=5.249,95%CI:1.365～20.177),bed time(OR=3.277,95%CI:1.173～9.153),D-dimer(OR=2.102,95%CI:1.273～3.472),fibrinogen(OR=3.364,95%CI:1.012～11.184)were independent factors of lower extremity deep vein thrombosis in elderly patients with hip fracture after treatment(P<0.001).The prediction model is as follows:logit(P)=1.326X1+0.797X2+1.181X3+1.658X4+1.187X5+0.743X6+1.213X7.Time from injury to examination,intertrochal fracture,combined diabetes,combined cerebrovascular disease,bed time,D-dimer,and fibrinogen predicted the lower extremity DVT model.The area under ROC curve was:0.824,95%CI=0.772～0.881,sensitivity 85.42%,specificity 72.36%.Conclusion The time from injury to examination,intertrochal fracture,comorbidities(diabetes,cerebrovascular disease),bed time,and coagulation function(D-dimer,fibrinogen)were independent risk factors for DVT in elderly patients with hip fractures after treatment,and this model has high predictive value.
Keywords：elderly patientship fracturelower limb deep venous thrombosisprediction model
Publication Date：2025-10-31
Online Publishing Date：2025-11-17(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 902-906 )