Based on the decision tree method,a risk prediction model for acute moderate to severe abdominal pain in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after TACE was constructed
Lu Hui
Zhang Ji
Li Weiwei
Abstract：Objective Based on the decision tree method,a risk prediction model for acute moderate to severe abdominal pain after transarterial chemoembolization(TACE)in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)was constructed to provide a reference for the prevention of such pain after TACE.Methods A total of 362 elderly patients with HCC who underwent TACE at the interventional department of Nantong Third People's Hospital from October 2020 to September 2023 were retrospectively selected for this study.Patients were divided into two groups based on the occurrence of acute moderate to severe abdominal pain within 48 hours post-operation:the abdominal pain group(n=123)and the non-abdominal pain group(n=239).SPSS software was used to construct a prediction model for postoperative acute moderate to severe abdominal pain based on Classification and Regression Tree(CRT).The predictive value was analyzed by comparing the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Univariate analysis showed statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of TACE surgery history,tumor distance from the liver capsule,maximum tumor diameter,tumor number,vascular invasion,TACE procedure,history of abdominal pain after TACE,lipidol volume,and the use of anhydrous ethanol(χ2=18.772,24.295,32.255,19.708,35.844,32.496,8.719,107.524,62.734,P<0.05).CRT model construction indicated that lipidol volume,use of anhydrous ethanol,vascular invasion,TACE surgery history,TACE procedure type,and tumor number were significant risk factors for acute moderate to severe abdominal pain in elderly patients with HCC after TACE(P<0.05).The area under the curve(AUC)of the CRT model was 0.895(95%CI=0.858～0.932),with sensitivity of 0.772 and specificity of 0.912.Conclusion The risk factors for postoperative acute moderate to severe abdominal pain in elderly HCC patients include lipidol volume,use of anhydrous ethanol,vascular invasion,history of TACE surgery,TACE procedure type,and tumor number.The CRT model based on these factors shows good predictive performance.
Keywords：Classification regression treeElderly patients with hepatocellular carcinomaTransarterial chemoembolizationAcute moderate to severe abdominal pain
Publication Date：2025-02-27
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 89-93 )