Risk Analysis of Ship Vehicle Project Schedule Based on Monte Carlo Method
ZHANG Yongqing
Abstract：The workload of a certain ship vehicle project is large,the technical difficulty is high,and there are many uncer-tain factors.The project schedule is difficult to accurately estimate,and it is prone to schedule adjustments,making project sched-ule management difficult.On the basis of traditional PERT method,variance adjustment factor is introduced to improve the variance calculation of PERT method.The improved PERT method is used to determine the project schedule,establish a simulation model of the project,and Monte Carlo method is used to simulate and analyze the project schedule and risks.The simulation analysis results show that Monte Carlo method can simulate the project schedule based on the improved PERT method,predict and evaluate the proj-ect schedule,and verify the operability and effectiveness of the improved PERT method.Through sensitivity risk analysis,the risk items in the project schedule can be analyzed and determined,providing more accurate decision-making information for project de-cision-makers to carry out project management work more targetedly.
Keywords：ship vehicleproject scheduleimproved PERTMonte Carlorisk
Publication Date：2025-12-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-03-23(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 134-140 )