Establishment and application of refined maximum wind forecast equation in Zhoushan port
FU Na
SUN Yi
LU Qi
XU Zheyong
GONG Yan
WU Shanshan
Abstract：Based on the quality-controlled wind speed from automatic weather station(AWS),this study used statistical methods to find that there was an obvious linear relationship between the hourly maximum wind speed and the hourly 10-minute maximum wind speed.Subsequently,refined maxi-mum wind speed forecast equations for each station in Zhoushan port were established.In addition,the error relationship between the 10-meter wind speed from the ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)model and the hourly 10-minute maximum wind speed was analyzed to fur-ther optimize the maximum wind speed forecast equations.Evaluation of the maximum wind speed from May 1,2016 to May 30,2017 showed that the 10-meter wind speed forecast by the ECMWF mod-el was overestimated for stations with low annual winds,but matched well for those with high annual winds.The station-specific maximum wind speed forecast equations after average wind correction were significantly better than the universal equation.ECMWF's 10-meter wind forecast performance varied little across different initiation times.Forecast performance decreased linearly with longer lead time for high-wind stations,but stayed stable for low-wind stations.The regression equation simulated better for stations with relatively high wind but the error became larger as the forecast timeliness increased.
Keywords：maximum windrefinedforecast equationforecast optimization
Publication Date：2025-12-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-05-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 56-62 )