Joint probability analysis of extreme tide level and storm surge duration
ZHAO Guanhua
DONG Sheng
Abstract：Typhoon disaster is one of the most important factors that should be considered in the con-struction of marine structures.In present study,31 typhoons affecting the coastal areas of Gudong oil production plant in Dongying City during 1960 and 2019 were simulated and the tide levels near the pro-ject site were calculated.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution model was applied to fit the marginal distributions of both extreme tide level and storm surge duration.The dependence struc-ture of these two environmental conditions was described by a Gumbel-Hougarrd copula function.Con-sidering the effect of the typhoon frequency on the design values,the Poisson compound extreme value distribution was used to perform the statistical analysis.The results indicate that the joint return period estimated by the proposed model acts as a reasonable representation of the storm surge disaster grade,and thus provides essential information for coastal disaster prevention and mitigation and marine struc-ture design.
Keywords：typhoonextreme tide elevationduration of the storm surge elevationjoint probabilityjoint return period
Publication Date：2024-10-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-05-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 1-8 )