A study on Probability of Ship Oil Spill Pollution with Random Probability Statistic Method in Western Yantai Port
SUN Peng
ZHANG Xueqing
MI Tiezhu
Abstract：Because of the randomness of dynamic,the pollution opportunity of ship oil spill is occasional at a certain place.In the case study of western Yantai port,the random probability statistical method was used to calculating the oil spill probability around the port.Based on the dynamic model forced by the random tide and wind,the oil movement was simulated with oil particle method.From the statistics of all simulating results,we got the oil pollution probability.The results indicated that around western Yantai port,the oil spill pollution probability was greater in the directions of NE-SW and SE-NW.For the wharf of western Yantai port and the agricultural and fishery areas to its west,the pollution probability was greater than 10％.Due to the special topography,the pollution probability was smaller than 5％ for the tourism and entertainment areas,agricultural and fishery regions,and Zhifu Island marine conservation area in Taozi Bay.
Keywords：Oil particle modelPollution probabilityRandom wind fieldShip oil spill
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-05-22(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 128-133 )