Construction of a Risk Nomogram Model for Predicting Atrial Fibrosis in Patients with Hypertension and Atrial Fibrillation Based on Risk Factor Analysis

CHEN Dongsheng; LUAN Xianting

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-437X.2026.08.013

Abstract：Objective To analyze and construct a risk nomogram model for predicting atrial fibrosis in patients with hypertension and atrial fibrillation.Methods A total of 136 patients with hypertension and atrial fibrillation who were hospitalized from October 2022 to October 2023 were selected as the study subjects and divided into fibrosis group and non-fibrosis group according to whether they developed atrial fibrosis.The risk factors of atrial fibrosis in patients with hypertensive atrial fibrillation were analyzed,and the risk nomogram model for predicting atrial fibrosis in patients with hypertension atrial fibrillation was established.Results The proportion of persistent atrial fibrillation,the severity × duration of hypertension,serum levels of uric acid(UA),laminin(LN),procollagen ⅠN-terminal propeptide(PⅠ NP),procollagen ⅢN-terminal propeptide(PⅢ NP),procollagen Ⅰ C-terminal propeptide(PⅠ CP),procollagen Ⅲ(PC Ⅲ),left atrial diameter(LAD)in fibrotic group were higher than those in non-fibrotic group(P＜0.05).Logistic analysis showed that persistent atrial fibrillation,higher severity × duration of hypertension,high levels of serum UA,LN,P Ⅰ NP,P Ⅲ NP,P Ⅰ CP,PC Ⅲ and LAD were risk factors for atrial fibrosis in patients with hypertension and atrial fibrillation(P＜0.05).Based on the above 9 risk factors,a risk model for predicting atrial fibrosis in patients with hypertension combined with atrial fibrillation was established.Further verification showed that the consistency index of the model was 0.917,95％CI was 0.861-0.967,and the area under curve(AUC)was 0.933,the calibration curve and the ideal curve fit well.Conclusion Persistent atrial fibrillation,higher severity × duration of hypertension,high levels of serum UA,LN,P Ⅰ NP,PⅢNP,P Ⅰ CP,PC Ⅲ and LAD are risk factors for atrial fibrosis in patients with hypertension and atrial fibrillation.The risk normalization model established based on the above 9 risk factors has high predictive value for the risk of atrial fibrosis in patients with hypertension combined with atrial fibrillation.