Analysis and Prediction of Incidence and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in Children of Five Asian Countries from 1990 to 2019 Based on Age-Period-Cohort Model
WANG Xiaoyan
LIU Didi
QUAN Yali
LI Hong
LIU Mengke
DU Weina
LIU Yamei
Abstract：Objective To analyze the disease burden of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)in children from five Asian countries from 1990 to 2019 and predict the trend over the next decade.Methods Using the latest global burden of disease(GBD)data,this study analyzed the estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)in the incidence rate and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rate of ADHD among children in China,Thailand,South Korea,Japan,Singapore,and Asia overall from 1990 to 2019,as well as the distribution characteristics of these rates and their associations with the socio-demographic index(SDI).Finally,the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)package in R software was used to predict the incidence rate and DALYs rate of childhood ADHD in the five Asian countries from 2019 to 2030.Results Regarding incidence,only children with ADHD in China and Japan showed an increasing trend in EAPC.SDI was positively correlated with incidence in China and Thailand,while an inverse correlation was observed in the remaining countries for the＜5 years and 10-14 years age groups.Regarding DALYs,only children with ADHD in China exhibited an increasing trend in EAPC,a positive correlation with SDI was found in low-SDI countries for the＜5 years and 9-10 years age groups,whereas a negative correlation was only present in the＜5 years age group among high-SDI countries.The trends in the prevalence of ADHD and DALYs rates were consistent across the five Asian countries and Asia as a whole.The 5-9 years age group had the highest incidence of ADHD,while the 10-14 years age group had the highest DALYs.Projection results showed that from 2020 to 2030,China and Thailand would remain the two countries with the highest incidence and DALYs rate among the five Asian nations,while South Korea had the lowest rates.Japan and Singapore remained relatively stable.Conclusion China and Thailand face a relatively severe situation in the prevention and control of childhood ADHD.Multidimensional,precise,and effective prevention and control measures should be implemented to improve early diagnosis,identification,and comprehensive intervention capabilities,thereby reducing the medical burden.
Keywords：attention deficit hyperactivity disorderage-period-cohort modelsocio-demographic index
Publication Date：2026-04-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 1349-1354 )