Risk Prediction Model Construction and Validation for the Explosive Cancer Pain in Pancreatic Cancer Patients
FAN Yunli
REN Hongyan
LI Yanwei
DONG Bei
Abstract：Objective To analyze the current status of explosive cancer pain in pancreatic cancer patients,explore the risk factors associated with its occurrence,establish a risk prediction model,and validate the model's internal validity.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 120 pancreatic cancer patients hospitalized at the Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2018 to September 2023.The patients were divided into an occurrence group(32 cases)and a non-occurrence group(88 cases)based on the presence or absence of explosive cancer pain.Clinical data were collected,and logistic regression models were used to analyze risk factors.A risk prediction model was constructed and internally validated using 1 000 Bootstrap sampling iterations.Results Logistic regression analysis showed that age,frequency of pain,bone metastasis,peritoneal metastasis,and lung metastasis were risk factors for the occurrence of explosive cancer pain in pancreatic cancer patients(P＜0.05).The accuracy of the predictive model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve,with an area under the curve(AUC)of 0.986,95％CI:0.971-1.00,sensitivity of 96.90％,and specificity of 89.77％.Conclusion Age,frequency of pain,bone metastasis,abdominal metastasis and lung metastasis are the risk factors of explosive pain in pancreatic cancer patients.The risk prediction model established in this study has a certain predictive value for explosive pain.
Keywords：pancreatic cancerexplosive cancer painrisk factorrisk prediction model
Publication Date：2026-03-13
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 842-845 )