Construction and Validation of Risk Prediction Model for Enteral Nutrition-Associated Diarrhea in ICU Patients
CHANG Qing
XIAO Yao
DUAN Zhiyun
TIAN Yongxiang
Abstract：Objective To establish a risk prediction model of enteral nutrition-associated diarrhea(ENAD)in ICU and verify it.Methods From October 2022 to September 2023,one hundred and fifty ICU patients in Henan Luoyang Orthopedic Hospital were divided into ENAD group(73 cases)and non-ENAD group(77 cases)according to whether ENAD occurred or not.The risk factors of ENAD in ICU patients were analyzed,and the risk prediction model of ENAD in ICU patients was established.Results Compared with the non-ENAD group,the rate of aged≥60 years,ICU stay≥7 days,fasting time ≥ 48 hours,enteral nutrition preparation temperature＜37 ℃ or＞42℃,mechanical ventilation time≥3 days,hypoproteinemia and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ score(APACHE Ⅱ)score in the ENAD group were higher(P＜0.05).Logistic regression analysis showed that aged ≥ 60 years,ICU stay ≥ 7 days,fasting time ≥48 hours,temperature of enteral nutrition preparation＜37 ℃ or＞42 ℃,hypoproteinemia and APACHE Ⅱ score were the risk factors for ENAD in ICU patients(P＜0.05).Hosmer-Lemeshow test shows that x2=7.665,P=0.467,and the model has a good goodness of fit.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve analysis showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the risk model for ENAD in ICU patients was 0.925,Jordan index was 0.709,sensitivity and specificity was 90.4％,80.5％,respectively,95％CI was 0.885-0.965,and accuracy was 88.67％(133/150).Conclusion The risk prediction model of ENAD in ICU patients constructed in this study has a good prediction effect,which can provide an auxiliary reference for the prediction of ENAD in ICU patients.
Keywords：enteral nutrition-associated diarrheaintensive care unitrisk prediction model
Publication Date：2026-01-13
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 65-68 )