Nomogram Risk Prediction Model of Vascular Crisis After Repair of Oral and Maxillofacial Tumors
CAO Changle
Abstract：Objective To determine risk factors of vascular crisis after oral and maxillofacial tumors patients who following free flap reconstruction,and develop a nomogram to predict these risks.Methods A total of 400 patients who underwent treatment were recruited from March,2018 to May,2023 in the First Hospital Affiliated to Zhengzhou University.Univariate and logistic regression were used to analyze the risk factors of vascular crisis after repair of oral and maxillofacial tumors.The risk prediction model was established and nomogram was drawn.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and C-index were used to verify the prediction effect of the model.Results There were 56 of 400 patients underwent free flap operation had vascular crisis,the rate was 14％.The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension,diabetes,nutritional score,potassium and fibrinogen were identified as significant factors(P＜0.05).The nomogram model showed that C-index was 0.720.The calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve,the area under the curve(AUC)of ROC was 0.720(95％CI:0.649-0.799),and the decision curve showed a higher net benefit value when the threshold probability ranged from 15％to 80％.Conclusion The prediction model of vascular crisis after oral cancer free flap repair based on risk factors can predict the risk of vascular crisis.
Keywords：free flap reconstructionnecrosisnomogram
Publication Date：2026-01-13
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 26-29 )