Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Postoperative Acute Kidney Injury in Children with Congenital Heart Disease
WU Zhenyu
Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors for postoperative acute kidney injury(AKI)in children with congenital heart disease,and to construct a predictive model for postoperative AKI occurrence.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted to collect data from 143 children with congenital heart disease who underwent surgical treatment at Henan Province Chest Hospital from January 2021 to December 2023.According to the occurrence of AKI within 7 days after surgery,50 children with AKI were included in the occurrence group,and 93 children without AKI were included in the non-occurrence group.The baseline data of children with different AKI occurrence were compared,and the risk factors of acute kidney injury in children with congenital heart disease were analyzed by multiple regression analysis,and the column chart prediction model was constructed based on the risk factors.Results The occurrence group had a higher proportion of cyanotic heart disease,duration of cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB)≥ 80 minutes,intraoperative nasopharyngeal hypothermia,postoperative interleukin(IL-6)≥ 41 ng·L-1,and postoperative mechanical ventilation time ≥ 120 minutes compared to the non-occurrence group(P＜0.05).There was no significant difference in comparison with other baseline data between the two groups(P＞0.05).A multiple logistic regression analysis model was constructed,the results showed that heart disease type,duration of CPB,intraoperative nasopharyngeal temperature,postoperative IL-6,and postoperative mechanical ventilation time may all be risk factors for postoperative AKI in children with congenital heart disease(OR＞1,P＜0.05).For the prediction model of column line chart based on risk factors,the internal correction curve of the model had a good fit with the ideal reference curve;in terms of model evaluation value test,the area under the curve(AUC)of the model was 0.768(95％CI:0.692-0.845).Conclusion Heart disease type,duration of CPB,intraoperative nasopharyngeal temperature,postoperative IL-6,and postoperative mechanical ventilation time may all be risk factors for postoperative AKI in children with congenital heart disease.Based on this,a column chart model was constructed with good accuracy in evaluation.
Keywords：congenital heart diseasechildrenacute kidney injuryregression analysisprediction model
Publication Date：2025-11-13
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 3889-3894 )