Analysis of Influencing Factors for the Blastocyst Formation on Day 5 in Fresh Cycle and the Construction and Validation of Nomogram Prediction Model
TIAN Keke
ZHAO Fang
YAN Hong
DU Wei
ZHANG Zuming
LÜ Yuzhen
QIAN Richeng
XUE Yunjing
Abstract：Objective To explore the influencing factors of blastocyst formation on day 5 in fresh cycle,and to delelop and validate the nomogram prediction model.Methods A total of 1 384 patients who received in-vitro fertilization treatment in the Department of Reproductive Medicine of Jiaozuo Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital from January 2019 to March 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.The patients were randomly divided into training set(952 cases)and validation set(432 cases)in a ratio of 7∶3.The independent influencing factors of blastocyst formation on day 5 were screened by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis.Based on the regression coefficients of independent influencing factors,the nomogram prediction model of day 5 blastocyst formation was constructed by R software.The area under the curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess the discriminative and calibration of the model.Results The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the female age,anti-Mullerian hormone,fertilization mode,the rate of good-quality embryos on day 3 and the number of day 3 embryos in blastocyst culture were significantly related with the blastocyst formation on day 5 in fresh cycle.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of training set and verification set were 0.828(95％CI:0.802-0.853)and 0.818(95％CI:0.779-0.857),respectively.The result of Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that there was no statistically significant difference between the predicted probabilities and the actual observed probabilities.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model for day 5 blastocyst formation in fresh cycle can provide reference for clinicians and is helpful to better implement single blastocyst transfer in clinical work.
Keywords：fresh cyclenomogram modellogistic regression analysissingle blastocyst transfer
Publication Date：2024-06-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 2154-2159 )