Construction of a Model of Factors Influencing Frailty Occurrence in Elderly Patients with Heart Failure

CHEN Wei; MENG Liying

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004-437X.2023.24.011

Abstract：Objective To study the influencing factors of frailty occurrence in senile patients with heart failure and build a prediction model.Methods The clinical data of 508 patients with senile heart failure admitted to Henan Provincial Workers'Hospital from April 2018 to December 2022 were retrospectively collected.According to whether the patients had frailty,they were divided into the frailty group(121 cases)and the non-frailty group(387 cases).The single factor of frailty in senile heart failure patients was analyzed.Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors of frailty occurrence in elderly patients with heart failure,and the related prediction model was constructed.The predictive value of the prediction model for frailty occurrence in elderly patients with heart failure was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve.Results Older age,nutritional risk status,multiple drug use,lower left ventricular ejection fraction(LVEF),lower peripheral red blood cell count(RBC),lower level of serum hemoglobin(Hb),and higher level of serum creatinine(Cr)were independent risk factors for frailty in elderly patients with heart failure(OR=3.056,3.532,3.284,3.497,2.740,3.501,2.672,P＜0.05).Prediction model:logit(P)=-10.668+1.117X1+1.262X2+1.189X3+1.252X4+1.008X5+1.253X6+0.983X7.The results of ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve value of the prediction model was 0.832,the sensitivity was 67.77％,and the specificity was 86.30％.Conclusion Independent risk factors for frailty occurrence in elderly patients with heart failure included older age,nutritional risk status,multiple drug use,lower LVEF,lower peripheral RBC,lower level of serum Hb and higher level of serum Cr.Therefore,the construction of prediction model has good value for predicting frailty occurrence in elderly patients with heart failure.