Application of the Grey Residual GM(1,1)Model in predicting the epidemic tendency of lung tuberculosis
Liu Wei
Zeng Lingcheng
Li Huanzhi
Abstract：Objective To predict the short-term epidemic tendency of lung tuberculosis,and explore the application value of Grey Residual GM(1,1)Model in the prediction of diseases and effect evaluation. Methods Simple and residual error Grey GM(1,1)Models were respectively established according to the data of incidence rate of lung tuberculosis in Xi’an from 1996 to 2005. By comparing the goodness of fit of two models,the model with“good”goodness of fit was selected to predict the short-term epidemic tendency of lung tuberculosis. Results The goodness of fit of simple and residual error Grey GM(1,1)Models was“reluctance”and“good”respectively. According to residual error Grey GM(1,1)Models,we predicted that the incidence rates of the lung tuberculosis in Xi’an in 2006 and 2007 were 364. 79/100 000 and 523. 20/100 000 respectively. Compared with the actual incidence,the incidences were decreased by 72. 09% and 82. 32% respectively. Conclusion The worKs a-chieved initial effects in the prevention and control of lung tuberculosis in Xi’an since 2005. Grey Residual GM(1,1)Model could be used to predict the short-term epidemic tendency of lung tuberculosis.
Keywords：lung tuberculosisGrey Residual GM(11)Modelprediction
Publication Date：2015-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：3( 1-3 )