Projection of Climate Comfort Changes in Different Regions in Hubei Province Under Climate Change Scenario

Yan Caixia; Qin Pengcheng; Zhang Huanhuan; Xia Zhihong

doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2026.02.010

Abstract：Based on the daily meteorological observation data in Hubei Province and the outputs of 14 global climate models from 2021 to 2100 under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)and two shared socioeconomic pathways emission scenarios(medium:SSP2-4.5,high:SSP5-8.5),the temporal and spatial variations of climate comfort in 17 different regions of Hubei Province in future periods from 2021 to 2100 are projected.The results show that:(1)Under climatic conditions of baseline period from 1995 to 2014,the annual average comfort days in Hubei Province is about 180.7 d with the highest number in Spring and Autumn and the lowest in Winter and Summer.The average annual number of hot uncomfortable days is 105.0 d in Hubei Province.The average annual number of cold and uncomfortable days is 79.6 d.Overall,there are few extreme hot and cold days of Hubei Province,and the climate is generally comfortable.(2)The absolute deviation of the average days of each comfort level in the baseline period between CMIP6 model prediction and observation calculation is 0.2-5.3 d.This indicates that the downscaling data of CMIP6 model can satisfy the projection of the climatic comfort level in Hubei Province under the climate change scenarios.(3)Under future climate scenarios,the number of climatic comfort days in Hubei Province will decrease from 2021 to 2100,the number of thermal discomfort days will increase significantly,the number of cold discomfort days will decrease significantly,and the overall developing trend will change to thermal discomfort.By the end of the 21st century,under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the average annual comfort days in Hubei Province will decrease by 7.8 d and 14.8 d,the number of hot uncomfortable days will increase by 38.8 d and 61.4 d,and the number of cold uncomfortable days will decrease by 32.5 d and 49.6 d,respectively.Compared with the current climate conditions,and the number of summer comfort days will become less and less,and the number of comfort days in winter will increase.The most comfortable months will be February to April and October to December.