Numerical Forecasting Study on the Intensity and Spiral Rainband of Northward-Moving Typhoon Haishen by Different Initial Field Data
Shang Bo
Li Yupeng
Huo Ye
Yang Xu
Duan Yunxia
Liu Bo
Abstract：Using the mesoscale WRF model driven by global forecast field from China's self-devel-oped global numerical weather prediction system CMA-GFS,global atmospheric/land surface reanalysis system CMA-RA,and the U.S.global numerical weather prediction system NCEP-GFS,we obtain three mesoscale forecast fields,namely,CMA-GFS-WRF,CMA-RA-WRF,and NCEP-GFS-WRF.The effects of the three initial fields and their mesoscale forecast fields on the typhoon central pressure,near-central maximum wind speed,spiral cloud bands,precipitation and cold air intrusion process are analyzed.The results show that the central pressure intensity of CMA-GFS is in the best agreement with observations,and its mesoscale forecast field CMA-GFS-WRF also reproduces the typhoon sub-center structure better.The central pressure intensity of CMA-RA is obviously weaker than that of the observations.Although the central pressure intensity of its mesoscale forecast field CMA-RA-WRF prediction has improved,it is still the weakest.NCEP-GFS overall has a better forecasting ability for maximum wind speed than CMA-GFS,while CMA-RA has the weakest forecasting ability for maximum wind speed,and the WRF model fore-casts by the three initial fields did not show any significant improvement in the maximum wind speed fore-casts.CMA-GFS-WRF simulates a wider range of spiral cloud bands,with westerly locations,a large range of strong centers,and a denser structure of cumulonimbus mixed clouds,followed by NCEP-GFS-WRF,and CMA-RA-WRF simulates the smallest range of strong echoes.In terms of the temporal evolu-tion of the regional mean precipitation,the mesoscale forecast results of the three initial fields have a 2-3 h lag in the precipitation peak.The comprehensive analysis of the whole precipitation process shows that the precipitation time series simulated by NCEP-GFS-WRF is closer to observation,followed by CMA-RA-WRF.The rainstorm range of CMA-GFS-WRF is obviously larger,which may be related to the simulated longer maintenance of the warm-core structure of the typhoon and the simulated slower intrusion of the cold air.
Keywords：Typhoon HaishenCMA-RACMA-GFSNCEP-GFSWRF
Publication Date：2026-01-31
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 71-81 )