Design of High-Temperature Weather Index Insurance for Cotton During the Flowering and Bolling Stage in Hunan Province
Li Hao
Guo Lili
Jiang Difei
Li Yueyong
Wang Yao
Mei Zhengding
Deng Ling
Abstract：High-temperature stress is a major factor leading to cotton yield reduction in Hunan,and the design and promotion of a high-temperature weather index insurance are crucial for diversifying and transferring agricultural meteorological disaster risks and ensuring farmers'incomes.Based on field trial data of the"Xiangmian Early No.1"cotton variety from three counties(districts)between 2020 and 2022,the impact of high-temperature stress during the flowering and boll stages on cotton yield and its components is investigated,and a high-temperature weather index insurance model is constructed.The main research results are as follows:(1)Average temperature and maximum temperature during the flow-ering and bolling stages significantly affect the development period,shortening the flowering to boll-open-ing stage by an average of 8.5 days.High temperature also impacts yield components,with actual seed cotton yield per plant showing a downward trend.Specifically,in Huarong County,the 2022 yield de-creased by 22.9%and 19.4%compared to 2020 and 2021,respectively;in Li County,the 2022 yield decreased by 12.6%and 14.1%.compared to 2020 and 2021,respectively.(2)Average temperature(Tave),maximum temperature(Tmax),the number of days with average temperature≥30℃(DTave),and the number of days with maximum temperature≥35℃(DTmax)are all negatively correlated with the number of bolls and yield.The correlation coefficients between boll number and Tave,Tmax,and DTmax were-0.784,-0.771,and-0.701,respectively,all reaching a significant level(p≤0.05),which meant boll number decreased significantly with increase in the number of days with Tave,Tmax,Tmax≥35℃.(3)An Allometric high-temperature disaster loss compensation model based on the number of high-temperature days(DTmax)during the cotton flowering and boll stages was constructed.The pure pre-mium rates under different high-temperature levels ranged from 0.16%to 0.68%,with compensation standards ranging from 45.0 to 900.0 yuan/hm2.
Keywords：cottonflowering and boll stagehigh temperature heat damageweather index insur-ancepremium rate determination
Publication Date：2026-01-31
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 48-54 )