Impact of Climate Change on Climatic Suitability for High Yield of Camellia Oleifera in Hunan Province

Jiang Yuanhua; Guo Lingyao

doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2026.01.002

Abstract：In order to adapt to climate change,full rational use of agricultural climate resources,and make the development plan of Camellia oleifera planting in Hunan Province scientifically,based on high-resolution historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2020 and BCC-CSM2-MR model forecast data from 2021 to 2050,using the baseline period of 1961-1990,the high-yield climatic regionalization index of Camellia oleifera was used to analyze the spatial-temporal features,geocentric changes and displace-ments of Camellia oleifera climatic suitability in Hunan Province.The results showed that climatic suita-bility for high-yield Camellia oleifera showed decreasing trend.The most-suitable area decreased from northwest to southeast,while the suitable area expanded from north to south,the sub-suitable area devel-oped around the Dongting Lake region,and the unsuitable area remained relatively stable.Compared with the baseline period,the ratio of the most-suitable area decreased by 18.0%during 1991-2020,while the ratio of suitable,sub-suitable,and unsuitable areas increased by 9.9%,7.3%,and 0.8%,respec-tively.The most-suitable and suitable areas migrated to higher altitudes,while the sub-suitable and un-suitable areas migrated to lower altitudes.The ratio of the most-suitable area decreased by 20.7%during 2021-2050,while the ratio of suitable,sub-suitable,and unsuitable areas increased by 16.1%,3.1%,and 1.5%,respectively.The suitable areas migrated to higher altitudes,while the sub-suitable and un-suitable areas migrated to lower altitudes.Compared with the period of 1991-2020,the ratio of the most-suitable area and sub-suitable area decreased by 2.7%and 4.2%during 2021-2050,while the ratio of suitable and unsuitable areas increased by 6.2%and 0.7%,respectively.The most-suitable areas slightly migrated to lower altitudes,while the suitable and sub-suitable areas migrated to higher altitudes,and the unsuitable areas position remains basically unchanged.Under the background of future climate warming,the number of low temperature days during the flowering period and precipitation days during the young fruit period showed a decreased trend.The number of high temperature days during the peak period of oil conversion and accumulation increased,and the overall climatic suitability decreased.Air temperature was the main meteorological factor that would have a negative impact on high-yield of Camellia oleifera in the future.