Research on Test and Correction of Wind Speed Forecast Products for Expressways in Heilongjiang Province

Zhang Xin; Zhang Xin; Wang Yida; Li Qianni; Zhang Zhaowei; Han Jiliang; Liu Shuai

doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2025.05.003

Abstract：Two correction methods,moving average and Kalman filtering,are used to test and cor-rect the wind speed forecast products for Heilongjiang expressways.The results show that the forecast value of maximum wind speed with each forecast lead time is close to the observed wind speed,but gen-erally has a lower value.The revised wind speed value can reduce the systematic error of the model prod-ucts,and generally presents a positive correction effect.The forecast errors(mean error,mean absolute error and root mean square error)decrease at each forecast lead time.Among them,the effect of Kalman filtering method is better than that of the moving average method,and the effect of maximum wind speed correction is better than that of the corrected minimum wind speed.From the perspective of geographical distribution,the reduction range of root mean square error at most sites is 0.5-1.0 m/s.The correction effect in daytime is better than that at night,and the daytime forecast test score is more stable with de-creasing fluctuation after the correction.Further analysis shows that there are significant differences in the correction effects for different expressway sections.The correction effect in the plain area is better than that in the mountainous area,because the complex terrain in the mountainous area leads to large varia-tions in wind speed and the adaptability of the correction algorithm is poor.With the increase of actual wind speed,the mean error of forecast before and after correction decreases first and then increases,and the wind speed forecast error of the mountainous expressway sections increases more obviously with the in-crease of the actual wind speed.