Projecting the Variation Trend of Frost Damage in Spring Tea Picking Period in Zhejiang Province Based on PRECIS

Zhang Yujing; Fu Liang; Jin Zhifeng

doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2025.02.009

Abstract：Tea(Camellia sinensis)is a major cash crop in Zhejiang Province,frost damage in spring is the most serious agro-meteorological disaster threatening the tea production.To rationally using climate resources,avoid climate risks,coordinate tea planting distribution and adapt technical measures to climate change,and contribute to the sustainable and healthy development of the tea industry in Zhe-jiang Province,this study adopts the daily meteorological data by regional climate modeling system PRE-CIS(Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies)under climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 and analyzes the variation trend of tea picking period and spring frost damage risk in the future.The results show that:By mid-21st century,the mean temperature during tea bud stage are projected to increase ob-viously relative to the climate baseline period,and the tea picking stage would advance accordingly.For the early sprouting tea variety,it would advance by 10.1 d and 12.2 d under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,re-spectively,while those for the late sprouting tea variety would advance by 5.6 d and 10.3 d under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.More advancing days in tea picking stage would appear in early sprouting tea vari-ety than that in late sprouting tea variety,and more advancing days would appear in the eastern costal re-gion than that in the western and northern region.Affected by climate warming,the risk of frost damage during the tea picking period would reduce.The number of frost days would reduce more under the low emission scenario than that under the high emission scenario,and the reduction degree of the late sprou-ting tea variety is more obvious than that of the early sprouting tea variety.Under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the frost days of early sprouting tea variety would reduce by 0.8 d and 0 d,respectively,while the frost days would reduce by 2.4 d and 1.5 d for the late sprouting tea variety.In conclusion,due to the different warming rates under climate scenarios and the sensitivity of different tea varieties to climate change,tea frost damage is more likely to occur under the high emission scenario than under the low emission scenario.The early sprouting tea variety is more vulnerable to frost damage during picking period under climate change.