Verification of the Stable Components of a Typical Persistent Continuous Fog-haze Process by Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models
Zhang Lu
Sun Shupeng
Wu Yang
Liao Yunchen
Zhao Yue
Abstract：Using the daily reanalysis data of the NCEP/DOE global geopotential height field in 1981-2020,the stable components of the typical persistent fog-haze weather process in the Beijing-Tian-jin-Hebei region from December 2016 to January 2017 are extracted and analyzed.Five different models are selected from the subseasonal to seasonal prediction project(S2S),and the methods such as the anomaly correlation coefficient(ACC),Taylor diagram and violin plot are used to compare and verify the prediction results of the stable components of the geopotential height anomaly field between each model and each prediction member within the optimal model.The results suggest that among the five models of China(CMA),Canada(ECCC),European Center(ECMWF),United States(NCEP)and Japan(JMA),the ECMWF model provides the best and most stable prediction results.CMA model provides the best prediction results of the stable components in the middle and lower layers,especially at 500 hPa,but the prediction results at 100 hPa are relatively poor.ECCC and JMA models perform well at 100 hPa,but they are relatively poor at other levels.According to the comprehensive prediction of 51 members of ECMWF model,the prediction results at 500 hPa are the best.Among all members of the ECMWF model,the ACC with the largest distribution probability is about 0.85,followed by the predic-tion results at 100 hPa.The prediction results at 850 hPa and 700 hPa are poor relatively.
Keywords：continuous fog-haze processstable componentforecast verification
Publication Date：2025-01-30
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 65-72 )