Accuracy Comparison of Yield Prediction of Brassica Juncea Var.Tumida Based on Climate Suitability Index With Different Weighting Coefficient Determination Methods
Wu Qiang
Ma Jialiang
Zhang Yue
Cai Guoqiang
Xu Qianqian
Abstract：In this study,methods of absolute value,normalization,and correlation were used to ob-tain the weight coefficients of the influence of meteorological conditions on the yield of Brassica juncea var.tumida.The dynamic yield prediction model was established based on the meteorological influence index and climatic suitability index with different weight coefficient determination methods.The results showed that the methods of absolute value and normalization as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index have limitation in practical application,while the climatic suitability index calculated by the weight coeffi-cient of correlation method could better reflect the change of yield of Brassica juncea var.tumida affected by meteorological conditions.The dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coeffi-cient of climate suitability index has passed the validity test.The average prediction accuracy,average root mean square error of homogenization and average accuracy of the bumper or poor harvest trend of back-sub-stitution test results with different starting time was 92.0％,0.195,and 70.3％,respectively.Extrapola-tion test showed that the prediction accuracy of the dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index was greater than 90.0％,except for a few starting dates.The bumper or poor harvest trend was accurate.The dynamic prediction model by the correlation method as the weight coefficient of climate suitability index had high applicability and accuracy.
Keywords：yield predictionclimatic suitability indexabsolute value methodnormalization meth-odcorrelation methodbrassica juncea var.tumida
Publication Date：2024-04-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 79-85 )