Impact of Climate Change on Effective Accumulated Temperature During Flue-cured Tobacco Planting in Hubei Province
Zhou Xiaohan
Ren Yongjian
Abstract：Flue-cured tobacco is an important cash crop in Hubei Province.Global warming can lead to the changes in the effective accumulated temperature of flue-cured tobacco planting areas in Hubei Province,affecting the quality and yield of flue-cured tobacco.Therefore,it is very necessary to explore the impact of climate change on the effective accumulated temperature of flue-cured tobacco in Hubei Province.Based on the daily average temperature data of 18 national weather stations in the flue-cured tobacco areas of Hubei Province from 1960 to 2020,and the future climate projections provided by the CMIP6 EC-Earth3 global climate model under the three scenarios of SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 in 2023-2100,we analyze the spatial and temporal evolutions of effective accumulated temperature dur-ing the growth period of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Hubei Province by the method of trend analysis,bilinear interpolation,model evaluation and error correction.The results show that:(1)The effective ac-cumulated temperature in the growth period of flue-cured tobacco in Hubei presents a slowly ascending trend from 1960 to 2020 with a spatial distribution pattern of two high values and one low value.The ef-fective accumulated temperature in the Badong,Xingshan,Zigui area and Zaoyang is higher while it is lower in Lichuan and Xianfeng.After the forecast errors are corrected,the EC-Earth3 model can repro-duce the observed data well.(2)For the period of 2023-2100,under the three different SSP-RCP sce-narios of climate change,the effective accumulated temperature during the growth period of flue-cured to-bacco in Hubei is projected to have a significant upward trend and the spatial distribution is similar to that of historical periods,but the high-value area of effective accumulated temperature will change.Under the high forcing scenario SSP5-8.5,the effective accumulated temperature of flue-cured tobacco plantation area in Hubei will increase considerably,which is greatly affected by climate warming.
Keywords：flue-cured tobaccoplanting field growth periodeffective accumulated temperaturespatio-temporal evolutionCMIP6
Publication Date：2023-12-28
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 39-48 )