Application and Evaluation of Pattern Projection Downscaling Method in the Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Henan
Shi Hengbin
Liang Junping
Wu Lu
Abstract：Using summer precipitation data of Henan province,BCC-CGCM and ECMWF-SYSTEM4 model data,a pattern projection downscaling method was used to predict summer precipitation in Henan province.The results are as follows.1) The prediction result of pattern projection downscaling method is better and more stable than original model prediction.The Ps score of most region in Henan province is higher than 60 except central region.2) In the cross-validation period,the two model's downscaled forecast Ps scores are higher than the original models by 20.2％ and 16.3％,but the Ps score of ECMWFSYSTEM4 downscaled prediction is 71.2,1.6 higher than the BCC-CGCM downscaled prediction score.In 62％ years of the 26 years cross-validation period,downscaling prediction method has a positive correction.3) The results of independent sample evaluation from 2009 to 2013 show that the predictions of pattern projection downscaling method Ps scores for Henan province improve 40％ than original model,indicating that the pattern projection downscaling method for summer precipitation of Henan province has good predictive ability.4)The method can be applied in operation,a graphical interface program has been established,which is more convenient for operation applications.
Keywords：pattern projectionsummer precipitationpredictionclimate modelevaluation
Publication Date：2017-10-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 70-75 )