Variation and Future Trend Analysis of Comfort Index of Human Body in Xinyang City
Wu Shi'an
Abstract：The comfort index of human body (CIHB) was calculated based on the meteorological data of Xinyang city from 1961 to 2013.The variation trends of CIHB and comfort days in Xinyang city were analyzed using methods of linear trend estimate,moving average and standard deviation sliding.On the basis of above analysis,we forecasted the variation trend of CIHB and comfort days using R/S method.The conclusions showed as follows.1)The annual average CIHB in Xinyang showed a significant upward trend,with linear trend of 0.016 /a.The spring and winter average CIHB both showed significant upward trend,and the trend strengths were equivalent.The autumn average CIHB showed upward trend,while the trend was not significant.The summer average CIHB decreased significantly.There were no significant increase or decrease trend in winter CIHB standard deviation,while summer CIHB standard deviation was continuously decreasing,which indicated that the probability of extreme weather and climate events in Xinyang did not increase.2) The number of comfort days in Xinyang increased significantly with linear trend of 0.359 d/a.Cold and hot days both showed decreasing trend,and the trend of cold days is greater than that of hot days.3) Based on the R/S analysis,the average annual and seasonal CIHB have long-term correlation.And the annual,spring,autumn and winter average CIHB would continually rise in the future,the summer average CIHB would continually decrease.The number of comfort days has long-term correlated characteristics,and the number of comfort days would continually rise in the coming days while the number of cold and hot days continually reduce.
Keywords：comfort index of human body (CIHB)variation trendcomfort daysR/S analysis
Publication Date：2017-07-02
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 59-64 )