Forecast and Analysis of Cnaphalocrocis Medinalis Guenee Risk Region in China Based on Climate Change
Jiang Gan
Wang RuLin
Wang Yanli
Shen Zhanhong
Lin Shan
Abstract：Climatic conditions are closely related to the life activity of pests,and they are one of the main factors affecting the distribution of pests and diseases.Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee is a wordwide pest of rice.Study showed that its outbreak is closely related to the meteorological factors.Therefor it is necessary to research the risk range change of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee under climate change.The current distribution state of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee was estimated and the risk range change by 2020s in China were predicted using geographical distribution information of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee and environmental data,by means of MaxEnt model and ArcGIS.The results showed that,Shanghai,Zhejiang,Anhui,south Jiangsu,mid-eastern Hubei,east Hunan,southwest Sichuan and middle Guangxi are the extremly high risk areas for Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee in China.The high risk areas are in Guizhou,Guangdong,Fujian,Jiangxi,Chongqing,and most part of Guagnxi.By 2020s,under the Alb emissions scenario,the extremely high and high risk areas of Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee change little.Under A2a scenarios,the areas change significantly,the extremely high risk areas in Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Hubei,Hunan,etc.decrease greatly,while high risk areas increase significantly.Under B2a scenarios,the change of risk areas are similar to that under A2a,the extremely high risk areas decrease significantly.
Keywords：Cnaphalocrocis medinalis GueneeMaxEntrisk analysisprediction
Publication Date：2017-07-02
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 21-27 )