Quantitative Evaluation Model of Frost Disaster in Early Spring Tea in Zhejiang Province

Yu Liping; Wang Chen; Wang Zhihai

doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2017.02.007

Abstract：Spring frost is the most important meteorological disaster affecting Zhejiang spring tea production and quality.In order to carry out the assessment of frost disaster and reduce the risk of spring frost disaster in Zhejiang province,application of hourly observation data of 2094 meteorological automatic regional stations in Zhejiang province from 2005 to 2015,and Wuniuzao and Longjing 43 and other varieties spring tea development heat for the index of the start picking period,the spatial distribution of Wuniuzao and Longjing 43 and other varieties early spring tea start picking period in Zhejiang province was obtained by using GIS technology.Taking Wuniuzao spring tea frost damage in Quzhou as an example,based on the theory and technology of natural disaster risk assessment,this paper analyzes the factors such as the risk of frost,the exposure and vulnerability of spring tea,and the ability of disaster prevention and mitigation of spring tea.Based on the weighted index method,the quantitative evaluation model of spring tea frost damage index,spring tea growth and development model index and spring tea picking model index were established based on the local standard of tea frost in Zhejiang province.And frost damage cases during the 2005-2015 were tested.The results showed that the average picking period of Wuniuzao spring tea in Zhejiang province was between early February and early March,while Longjing 43 and other varieties of spring tea was between late February to late March.The picking period was postponed later from south to north.Based on the quantitative evaluation model established by the weighted index summation method,57 varieties of Wuniuzao frost damage cases in Quzhou city from 2005 to 2015 were tested.In 2006,2008,2010,2014 spring tea frost damage occurred in a higher frequency,and the frost damage in mid-March 2010 is the strongest.The rainy weather continued before the frost damage happened in mid-March 2010,leading to spring tea could not be picked in time and large area of spring tea was damaged.The quantitative evaluation results of Wuniuzao spring tea frost damage are consistent with the actual disaster.