Research of Hails Short-term Forecast Method in Henan Province
Ding Jianfang
Yang Min
Liu Lei
Abstract：Using the 45 hail days (the number of stations occurred hail more than 2 on the same day) from 1999 to 2010,the upper and lower altitude,ground situation characteristics and hail falling area are analyzed,the result shows hail is close with 500 hPa circulation situation.So according to 500 hPa weather situation and the lower troposphere characteristics,four weather patterns of hail in Henan province is mainly studied,which are northwest air current type,northeast cold vortex type,North China cold vortex type and trough type.After that,hail falling areas are summarized.Under favorable weather background conditions,the formation of hail must have water vapor convergence in the lower level,atmospheric unstable stratification and trigger mechanism.Therefore,low trough and low vortex position of 500 hPa on hail day,the ground cold front position,surface temperature,dew-point temperature and sounding data are statisticed in accordance with the month,in order to get the discriminant index of hail forecast.Considering the constraints,with the three dimensional hail cloud model which developed by Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences and 7 sounding stations inside and outside the province,regional hail forecast in Henan province is made.Through the business applications of 4 months,the vacancy rate of hail forecast is higher and the rate of missing report is lower with this method.This method improves the hail forecast period,strives to achieve sufficiently prepare time to hail suppression work.
Keywords：hailhail weather situationhail falling areathree dimensional hail cloud modelhail forecast
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 47-53 )