Downscaling Application of Dynamical Model in Summer Precipitation Prediction in Henan Province
Shi Hengbin
Liang Junping
Abstract：Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and observation data of 106 meteorological stations in Henan,the downscaling prediction model of Henan summer precipitation was established.The model predicted the summer precipitation of 106 meteorological stations in Henan by using 500 hPa height field of climate model and downscaling method.The model realized the downscaling application of climate model products in Henan,and made up for the defect of low spatial resolution of climate model.The his torical return tests showed that:the downscaling model's had good and stable forecasting effect for summer precipitation in Henan province,especially in north,west and south of Henan province.Using BCC-CGCM1 and ECMWF-SYSTEM4 dynamical model data,test of independent samples for this model was done and resutls showed that:prediction results of both the two dynamical model's from May were better than that from March.The prediction of BCC-CGCM1 from March was better than ECMWF-SYSTEM4,but the precipitations from May of the two models were similar.Based on this model,we developed a visual system and integrated test methods for using in climate forecast operations in Henan province.
Keywords：downscaling methodsummer precipitation predictioninterpretation
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2026-09-12(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 35-39 )