Development of a Climate Suitability Model for the Flowering Period of Chimonanthus praecox in Chongqing and Identification of Potential Planting Zones

JI Li; LI Qiang

doi:10.15933/j.cnki.1004-3268.2025.03.016

Abstract：Under the influence of global climate warming,the light,temperature,and water resources required for the growth and development of Chimonanthus praecox have undergone significant changes.Conducting research on the climatic adaptability of its key growth periods can provide a scientific basis for optimizing its cultivation structure.This study established a climate suitability model for wintersweet based on the light,temperature,and water requirements during its flowering period in Beibei,Chongqing,integrating climate suitability theory and fuzzy mathematics.The model was used to analyze climatic suitability characteristics during wintersweet's flowering stage in Chongqing,identify potential planting areas,and offer insights for adjusting cultivation practices and rationally utilizing climatic resources.Results indicated that Beibei exhibited the highest temperature suitability(0.83-0.99),conducive to flowering,while precipitation suitability ranged from 0.45 to 1.00,sufficiently meeting water demands.However,sunlight suitability was the lowest(0.28),suggesting that light conditions partially constrained flowering.Comparative analysis of the integrated climate suitability index and actual flowering quantity from 2019 to 2022 revealed consistent upward trends,validating the model's rationality.Chongqing experienced diverse climatic conditions from December to January,with average temperatures of 3-9℃,uneven precipitation distribution,and increasing sunshine duration from west to east.Southeastern Chongqing and northeastern Chongqing exhibited more low-temperature days and greater diurnal temperature variations,slightly impacting natural growth.Among climatic factors,temperature suitability outweighed precipitation and sunlight suitability,with overall favorable conditions for wintersweet flowering in Chongqing,though sunlight remained a limiting factor.Overall,the integrated climate suitability during wintersweet's flowering period in Chongqing is generally favorable,with western Chongqing offering optimal climatic conditions.