Analysis of Potential Suitable Areas Variation of Cercis glabra under Different Climate Scenarios Based on MaxEnt Model

ZHANG Yucui; YAN Caixia; ZHAO Lin; TAN Jianghong; WANG Cheng; YUAN Liang

doi:10.15933/j.cnki.1004-3268.2025.01.017

Abstract：In order to provide scientific basis for protection,introduction and transplantation of Cercis glabra,the dominant environmental factors which affected the geographical distribution of Cercis glabra and the variation trend of potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra in modern and future periods were researched.Based on the 329 distribution records of Cercis glabra in China,3 topographic variables,19 climate variables in modern times and future climate scenarios of low greenhouse gas emissions(ssp 126),moderate greenhouse gas emissions(ssp245),high greenhouse gas emissions(ssp5 85)in the shared socio-economic pathway(SSP),the dominant environmental factors which affected the geographical distribution of Cercis glabra were analyzed,and then the distribution,area,spatial pattern change,centroid migration trend of potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra were predicted by MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software in modern times and future climate scenarios.The results showed that the most important environmental factors were min temperature of coldest month(Bio6),annual precipitation(Bio12)and mean diurnal range(Bio2)for the distribution of potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra,the optimal ranges were-5.5-5.0 ℃,less than 1 750 mm,7.1-9.8 ℃ respectively.The total potential suitable area of Cercis glabra was 231.46×10 4 km2 in modern times,and mainly distributed in middle-south of East China,most areas of Central China,middle-north of South China,east of Southwest and Northwest China,and the high,moderate,low suitable areas accounted for 24.66％,35.21％and 40.13％respectively.In different periods in future climate scenarios,the spatial distributions of suitable areas are similar to modern times,but the total suitable areas are more than modern times,in the climate scenarios of ssp 126,ssp245,ssp585,the total potential suitable areas will increase by 0.49％,5.02％,4.64％in 2050s(2041-2060),and increase by 2.93％,4.47％,5.45％in 2070s(2061-2080);Under the climate scenarios of ssp245 and ssp585,the newly increased rates of the suitable areas are 0.88-1.82 percentage points higher than those in the same period of ssp 126 in 2050s and 2070s,while the lost rates are comparable or slightly smaller;Generally,the newly increased rate is 4.80％-6.71％,and the lost rate is 3.37％-4.65％,it is mainly reflected in the increase of the moderate suitable areas and the decrease of the high suitable areas;The potential suitable areas of Cercis glabra will migrate northward slightly as a whole,and the migration distances are less than 1 latitude;While its distribution center will move to northwest or southwest less than 300 km,then transfer to the border region in the south of Chongqing,north of Guizhou Province,southeast of Sichuan Province,and the meridional movements are more than latitudinal movements significantly,meanwhile,the movement distances in 2070s are less than 2050s.It showes that in the future,the meridional changes of climate environment are more than latitudinal changes,and the migration distances of the distribution centers will show a reducing trend over time;Under the climate with moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions,the climate environment will be more conducive to expansion of the suitable areas of Cercis glabra.