Investigation of Allergen Distribution in Adolescent Allergic Rhinitis Patients and Construction of Its Prediction Model

LI Wei; TU Jing; TIAN Cuiling

doi:10.13730/j.issn.2097-2148.2025.10.007

Abstract：Objective To investigate the distribution of allergen in adolescent allergic rhinitis patients,analyze its influencing factors,establish prediction model and verify it.Methods A total of 932 rhinitis adolescents who visited the outpatient or inpatient department of the author's hospital from January 2022 to August 2024 were selected for the study,and the patients were divided into the model group(n=652)and the validation group(n=280)at a ratio of 7∶3.Ques-tionnaires were used to collect relevant factors that may affect allergic rhinitis in adolescents,and the model group was di-vided into allergic rhinitis group(n=104)and non-allergic rhinitis group(n=548)based on the diagnosis of allergic rhi-nitis.The general information and health status of patients in the allergic rhinitis group and the non-allergic rhinitis group were compared,least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)was used to screen the potential variables and then multivariate Logistic regression was performed,the nomogram was used to visualize and transform the results of multivariate analysis,the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve were used to verify the mod-el,and the decision curve was used to analyze the clinical applicability of the model.Results In this study,104 cases(15.95％)in the model group and 44 cases(15.71％)in the validation group were diagnosed with allergic rhinitis,and there was no significant difference in the proportion of patients with allergic rhinitis between the two groups(P＞0.05).91.22％of the allergens in 148 patients with allergic rhinitis were inhaled allergens,among which dust mites and house dust were the highest,which accounted for 38.51％and 33.78％,respectively;food allergens ac-counted for 43.92％,and the propotions of shrimp and crab and cod were the highest,which accounted for 14.19％and 10.14％,respectively.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis using LASSO regression screening results showed that place of residence,smoking status of family members,use of carpet at home,adenoid hypertrophy,history of asthma and history of allergy were independent influencing factors for adolescent allergic rhinitis(P＜0.05).The results of model validation showed that the area under the curve(AUC)of the ROC curve of the model group was 0.725[95％confidence interval(CI):0.669-0.781];the AUC of ROC curve in the validation group was 0.713(95％CI:0.658-0.758);in terms of accuracy,the model curve and the ideal model curve were basically fitted diagonally.The results of clinical effec-tiveness analysis showed that the net benefit of the model in predicting allergic rhinitis in adolescents was the highest when the prediction probability threshold was 0.05-0.75.Conclusion The allergens in adolescent allergic rhinitis patients are mainly inhalant allergens,and dust mites and house dust account for a high proportion of allergens,which are mainly af-fected by the place of residence,smoking status of family members and the use of carpet at home,etc.The column-line diagram model based on the above mentioned factors was used for the prediction of allergic rhinitis in adolescents with a high degree of accuracy and discriminative power.