Construction and Verification of Navigation Fatigue Risk Screening Scale for Large Surface Warship Based on Predictive Model

LI Dong; ZHOU Tao; LI Zhen; DONG Dongfang; ZHAO Qi; DONG Wenzhu

doi:10.13730/j.issn.2097-2148.2024.05.011

Abstract：Objective To construct rating scale for navigation fatigue risk screening based on predictive model,so as to provide a basis for early identification and intervention of navigation fatigue population.Methods The officers and soldiers of a certain department participating in navigation tasks were prospectively selected for questionnaire survey,in-dependent risk factors of navigation fatigue were screened out through univariate analysis and multivariate analysis,which then substituted into 3 models,Logistic regression model,neural network model and classification tree model,the receiv-er operating characteristic(ROC)curve and area under the curve(AUC)of the models were compared to select the opti-mal model,and on this basis,the navigation fatigue risk screening scale was formed.Results The degree of fatigue of the crew on the 30th day of the voyage was higher than that on the 1st day before the voyage(P＜0.001).Univariate analysis showed that 9 factors including exercise frequency,smoking during port stay,carbohydrate intake,fermented di-et intake,stress,total daily working hours,number of adverse environmental factors,maximum continuous daily work-ing hours and Pittsburgh sleep quality index(PSQI)score of officers and soldiers on the naval vessel were related to fa-tigue scale 14(FS-14)score(all P＜0.05).The AUC of Logistic regression model,neural network model and classifica-tion tree model were 0.953,0.915 and 0.811 respectively,showing good diagnostic ability.The Logistic regression mod-el was selected as the best predictive model,and the sensitivity and specificity were 78.95％and 84.62％in the training set.In this study,the Logistic regression model was visualized in the form of a nomogram,and finally navigation fatigue risk screening score scale was formed.Conclusion In this study,the risk screening scale for navigation fatigue constructed based on Logistic regression model can predict navigation fatigue objectively and effectively,which pro-vide a basis for early risk screening and targeted interven-tion for navigation fatigue.