Application of Markov Chain in Prediction of Tuberculosis Morbidity in South Military
LI Wen-hua
YANG Ya-tao
ZENG Nian-hua
Abstract：Objective To study the application of markov chain in predicting the incidence of tuberculosis.Methods The markov model was based on the tuberculosis data in some south military from January 1992 to December 2012, and used for predicting the morbidity of tuberculosis in 2013, 2014 and 2015 Firstly, the grading standards of the morbidity were established.Secondly, changes of morbidity were predicted and analyzed by markov model for optimizing the long-term effect.Lastly, the prediction results were analyzed and evaluated.Results The morbidity rates of tuberculosis were a trend of downward at a certain time.The results showed the markov model was suitable.Conclusion The fitting results show that markov chain is an appropriate model for predicting the morbidity of tuberculosis in south military.
Keywords：Markov chainTuberculosisPredictionMorbidity
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：3( 339-341 )