Real Time Prediction Method for Metro Tunnel Deformation Based on Bayesian dynamic Linear Model and Foundation Pit Deformation Data
ZHOU Qihui
ZHANG Qiongfang
MA Zhi
SUN Miaomiao
HUANG Zhanggong
WEN Xuewei
Abstract：Based on the field deformation measurement data of metro tunnels and side excavation foundation pits,a tunnel deformation prediction method for metro protected areas based on Bayesian dynamic linear model(BDLM)is proposed.Firstly,the BDLM prediction model is established for the horizontal deformation of the excavated foundation pit next to the tunnel,and then the prediction results of the foundation pit deformation are used as regression variables to establish the prediction results of tunnel deformation,and finally the real-time and accurate prediction of the deformation of the metro tunnel protection area is realized.Taking the measured data of a certain section of Hangzhou Metro Line 1 with metro excavation as an example,the effectiveness of the method is verified.The results show that the proposed BDLM prediction method can accurately predict the horizontal deformation of the foundation pit and the tunnel deformation of the metro protection area in the short term,and effectively measure the uncertainty in the model,and give the confidence interval of the prediction results.
Keywords：Metro protection area tunnelDeformation predictionBayesian dynamic linear modelExcavation of side foundation pit
Publication Date：2025-12-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 89-97 )