Study on the Risk of Strong Earthquakes in North China Based on Multiple Seismicity Parameter Method
ZHAI Juan
HONG Dequan
ZHU Liang
ZHAO Mengqiang
YANG Zhen
Abstract：Based on the small and medium earthquakes in recent 38 years in North China,this paper carries out b-value scanning as the background stress level of the region.The results show that the b-value of the North China Plain seismic belt and the Bohai section of the Tanlu fault zone is low,and the stress accumulation level is high.According to certain zoning principles,the study area is divided into 6 regions.By using the multi-parameter combination analysis method and combining with the historical strong earthquake activity level of each region,the seismic risk of each region is preliminarily judged.The results show that the Shanxi belt,Yanshan belt,Anhui section and Shandong section of Tanlu fault zone are all under the low or medium-low stress background,characterized by the sliding of small and medium earthquakes,and the possibility of large earthquakes in the future is small.The Bohai section of the Tanlu fault zone,characterized by frequent sliding of small and medium earthquakes with large average magnitude,is in a high stress state and belongs to the region where strong earthquakes are most likely to occur in the future in North China.The North China Plain seismic belt is under the background of high stress,which is characterized by sliding of sparse small and medium earthquakes,and there is a possibility of large earthquakes in the future if the strain energy continues to accumulate.
Keywords：Multiple seismicity parametersb-valueNorth ChinaStrong earthquake risk
Publication Date：2024-03-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：10( 63-72 )